An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study.

BACKGROUND AIMS: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled AH patients per NIAAA criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day post-admission mortality, three AI algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined via Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce post-test probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence (ALCHAIN) Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30-day) and 27.9% (90-day) in the derivation cohort, versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779 - 0.844) and 0.799 (0.769 - 0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, MELD variations, ABIC, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p<0.001). ALCHAIN Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCHAIN Ensemble score>0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Harnessing AI within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.

MELD 3.0 adequately predicts mortality and renal replacement therapy requirements in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis.

Background & Aims: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score better predicts mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) but could underestimate severity in women and malnourished patients. Using a global cohort, we assessed the ability of the MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with AH from 2009 to 2019. The main outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. We compared the AUC using DeLong's method and also performed a time-dependent AUC with competing risks analysis. Results: A total of 2,124 patients were included from 28 centres from 10 countries on three continents (median age 47.2 ± 11.2 years, 29.9% women, 71.3% with underlying cirrhosis). The median MELD 3.0 score at admission was 25 (20-33), with an estimated survival of 73.7% at 30 days. The MELD 3.0 score had a better performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC:0.761, 95%CI:0.732-0.791) compared with MELD sodium (MELD-Na; AUC: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.713-0.775; p = 0.042) and Maddrey's discriminant function (mDF) (AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.691-0.757; p = 0.013). However, MELD 3.0 did not perform better than traditional MELD (AUC: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.723-0.783; p = 0.300) and Age-Bilirubin-International Normalised Ratio-Creatinine (ABIC) (AUC:0.757, 95% CI: 0.727-0.788; p = 0.765). These results were consistent in competing-risk analysis, where MELD 3.0 (AUC: 0.757, 95% CI: 0.724-0.790) predicted better 30-day mortality compared with MELD-Na (AUC: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.708-0.770; p = 0.028) and mDF (AUC:0.717, 95% CI: 0.687-0.748; p = 0.042). The MELD 3.0 score was significantly better in predicting renal replacement therapy requirements during admission compared with the other scores (AUC: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.805-0.883). Conclusions: MELD 3.0 demonstrated better performance compared with MELD-Na and mDF in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality, and was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements during admission for AH. However, further prospective studies are needed to validate its extensive use in AH. Impact and implications: Severe AH has high short-term mortality. The establishment of treatments and liver transplantation depends on mortality prediction. We evaluated the performance of the new MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH in a large global cohort. MELD 3.0 performed better in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality compared with MELD-Na and mDF, but was similar to MELD and ABIC scores. MELD 3.0 was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements. Thus, further prospective studies are needed to support the wide use of MELD 3.0 in AH.

Baseline Severity and Inflammation Would Influence the Effect of Simvastatin on Clinical Outcomes in Cirrhosis Patients.

BACKGROUND: Simvastatin administration to decompensated cirrhosis patients improved Child-Pugh (CP) at the end of a safety trial (EST). AIM: To evaluate whether simvastatin reduces cirrhosis severity through a secondary analysis of the safety trial. METHODS: Thirty patients CP class (CPc) CPc A (n = 6), CPc B (n = 22), and CPc C (n = 2) received simvastatin for one year. PRIMARY ENDPOINT: cirrhosis severity. Secondary endpoints: health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and hospitalizations for cirrhosis complications. RESULTS: Cirrhosis severity decreased baseline versus EST only across CP score (7.3 ± 1.3 versus 6.7 ± 1.7, P = 0.041), and CPc: 12 patients lessened from CPc B to CPc A, and three patients increased from CPc A to CPc B (P = 0.029). Due to cirrhosis severity changes and differences in clinical outcomes, 15 patients completed the trial as CPc AEST and another 15 as CPc B/C. At baseline, CPc AEST showed greater albumin and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations than CPc B/C (P = 0.036 and P = 0.028, respectively). Comparing EST versus baseline, only in CPc AEST, there was a reduction in white-cell blood (P = 0.012), neutrophils (P = 0.029), monocytes (P = 0.035), and C-reactive protein (P = 0.046); an increase in albumin (P = 0.011); and a recovery in HRQoL (P < 0.030). Finally, admissions for cirrhosis complications decreased in CPc AEST versus CPc B/C (P = 0.017). CONCLUSIONS: Simvastatin would reduce cirrhosis severity only in CPc B at baseline in a suitable protein and lipid milieu, possibly due to its anti-inflammatory effects. Furthermore, only in CPc AEST would improve HRQoL and reduce admissions by cirrhosis complications. However, as these outcomes were not primary endpoints, they require validation.

Addition of statins to the standard treatment in patients with cirrhosis: Safety and efficacy.

This review summarizes the safety and efficacy of statins in patients with cirrhosis. Due to concerns about the safety of statins in patients with impaired liver function, they have recently been investigated as a potential treatment option in cirrhosis. The most clinically significant adverse event is statin-related myopathy, and this may be related to the high serum statin concentrations in the setting of severely impaired liver function. Rhabdomyolysis is the most serious and potentially life-threatening manifestation. It has recently been demonstrated that the recommended dose of simvastatin in patients with decompensated cirrhosis would be 20 mg/d because higher values, such as 40 mg/d, are associated with many adverse events, especially muscle injury. Likewise, simvastatin should not be administered to patients with Model for End-stage Liver Disease score > 12 and/or Child-Pugh class C because of the high risk of severe muscle injury. Due to the pleiotropic effects, the focus on statins has shifted from being considered harmful to something useful. Through these effects, statins could prevent liver-related morbidity and mortality in cirrhotic patients. Observational studies in large populations of patients with cirrhosis have shown that treatment with statins to decrease high cholesterol levels was associated with a reduced risk of hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma development and death. The few randomized controlled trials in patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension showed that statins lower portal pressure, quite likely through a reduction in hepatic resistance. Another large randomized controlled trial in patients with variceal bleeding showed that simvastatin in addition to standard of care did not prevent rebleeding but improved survival rate. Despite these encouraging outcomes, the quality of the evidence regarding the use of statins is low or very low due to the observational characteristics of most of the studies involved. Therefore, it is advisable to perform further randomized controlled trials on a large series of patients with hard clinical endpoints, using different statin types and varying doses. The objectives would be to prevent liver-related morbidity and mortality rather than treating cirrhosis complications to take additional information that makes it possible to add statins to the standard of care of these patients.

Identification of optimal therapeutic window for steroid use in severe alcohol-associated hepatitis: A worldwide study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Corticosteroids are the only effective therapy for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), defined by a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score >20. However, there are patients who may be too sick to benefit from therapy. Herein, we aimed to identify the range of MELD scores within which steroids are effective for AH. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, international multicenter cohort study across 4 continents, including 3,380 adults with a clinical and/or histological diagnosis of AH. The main outcome was mortality at 30 days. We used a discrete-time survival analysis model, and MELD cut-offs were established using the transform-the-endpoints method. RESULTS: In our cohort, median age was 49 (40-56) years, 76.5% were male, and 79% had underlying cirrhosis. Median MELD at admission was 24 (19-29). Survival was 88% (87-89) at 30 days, 77% (76-78) at 90 days, and 72% (72-74) at 180 days. A total of 1,225 patients received corticosteroids. In an adjusted-survival-model, corticosteroid use decreased 30-day mortality by 41% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.59; 0.47-0.74; p <0.001). Steroids only improved survival in patients with MELD scores between 21 (HR 0.61; 0.39-0.95; p = 0.027) and 51 (HR 0.72; 0.52-0.99; p = 0.041). The maximum effect of corticosteroid treatment (21-30% survival benefit) was observed with MELD scores between 25 (HR 0.58; 0.42-0.77; p <0.001) and 39 (HR 0.57; 0.41-0.79; p <0.001). No corticosteroid benefit was seen in patients with MELD >51. The type of corticosteroids used (prednisone, prednisolone, or methylprednisolone) was not associated with survival benefit (p = 0.247). CONCLUSION: Corticosteroids improve 30-day survival only among patients with severe AH, especially with MELD scores between 25 and 39. LAY SUMMARY: Alcohol-associated hepatitis is a condition where the liver is severely inflamed as a result of excess alcohol use. It is associated with high mortality and it is not clear whether the most commonly used treatments (corticosteroids) are effective, particularly in patients with very severe liver disease. In this worldwide study, the use of corticosteroids was associated with increased 30-day, but not 90- or 180-day, survival. The maximal benefit was observed in patients with an MELD score (a marker of severity of liver disease; higher scores signify worse disease) between 25-39. However, this benefit was lost in patients with the most severe liver disease (MELD score higher than 51).

Safety of Chronic Simvastatin Treatment in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis: Many Adverse Events but No Liver Injury.

BACKGROUND: The high mortality rate of decompensated cirrhosis underlines the need for new treatments. Experimental models of cirrhosis and its reported relationship with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease have provided data supporting the rational use of statins in these patients. However, little is known about the safety of statins in this setting. AIM: We evaluate the safety of chronic simvastatin treatment in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, open, uncontrolled, phase 2a trial in 30 patients with Child-Pugh class A (n = 6), B (n = 22), and C (n = 2) decompensated cirrhosis. The patients received standard treatment throughout the trial plus simvastatin 20 mg/day for 2 weeks and thereafter simvastatin 40 mg/day up to 1 year. RESULTS: Sixteen out of 30 patients (53.3%) showed adverse events, including gastrointestinal toxicity (36.7%), muscle injury (MI) (36.7%), and headache (13.3%). No liver injury was registered. Due to MI alone, simvastatin dosage was reduced in 23.4% of cases and transiently interrupted in 13.3%. Once these adverse events were overcome, simvastatin was resumed until the end of the trial. MI was associated with baseline MELD score > 12 (p = 0.035) and with baseline Child-Pugh class C. No MI was associated with final Child-Pugh score ≤ 6 (p = 0.030) or final Child-Pugh class A (p = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: Chronic treatment with simvastatin 40 mg/day in patients with decompensated cirrhosis was associated with several adverse events, being MI the only clinically significant one, which appears to be related to the simvastatin dosage and the degree of cirrhosis severity. Noticeably, no liver injury was recorded.

Impact of acute-on-chronic liver failure on post-transplant survival and on kidney outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the effect of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) on patients' 1-year post-liver transplant (LT) survival. In addition, we evaluated the effect of ACLF on the development of post-LT chronic kidney disease (CKD) and early allograft dysfunction (EAD). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort of patients who underwent transplantation from 2010 to 2016 was studied. EASL-CLIF's definition of ACLF was used. The risk of post-LT death, CKD, and EAD was estimated with regression models weighted by inverse probability weighting considering the recipients' characteristics. Donor's BMI and donor risk index were included in the models as well. RESULTS: A total of 185 patients were included: 125 (67.6%) without ACLF and 60 (32.4%) with ACLF. The 1-year post-LT survival rate was 91.2% [95% confidence interval (CI): 84.6-95.1%] in patients without ACLF versus 84.9% (95% CI: 73.1-91.9%) in patients with ACLF. Post-LT CKD occurred in 43 (38.7%) patients without ACLF versus 26 (52.0%) patients with ACLF. EAD occurred in 40 (32.3%) patients without ACLF versus 15 (28.8%) patients with ACLF. No effect of ACLF was found on survival (hazard ratio 1.75; 95% CI: 0.64-4.75, P = 0.272), CKD (odds ratio: 1.31; 95% CI: 0.60-2.86; P = 0.491), or EAD (odds ratio: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.38-1.66, P = 0.473). CONCLUSION: In this study, which included mainly patients with grade 1 ACLF at the time of LT, its presence had no impact on post-LT survival or on the occurrence of CKD or EAD.